SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE SAUDI SOCIOECONOMICS

A fair minded observer cannot fail to note that Saudi Arabia, though faced with overwhelming challenges, which at times seem insurmountable, is forging ahead with serious attempts to adjust itself to a modern world which, almost all of a sudden, it found itself plunged into. Saudi Arabia is expected to achieve in few decades what took the West several centuries of gradual progress and development. The task is made the more difficult by the fact that the reforms accumulate in mathematical progression while challenges and problems mount in geometrical progression. To bring deep rooted, intricate traditions with long, complex history into harmony with ultramodern concepts and practices and to reconcile old cultural norms and well entrenched social values with new ones is a difficult juggling act, especially when the actor is subject to various and acute pressures from opposing and incompatible directions, internal and external.

Serious self-searching started in Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The war to liberate Kuwait was very costly and it coincided with a steep drop in oil prices. This plunged Saudi Arabia into heavy debts which put to a ground halt all public projects and infrastructural development, most of which have run down over the years for lack of maintenance and follow-ups. The war also strengthened the hands of reactionary Islamists whom the government had to appease in order to keep them quite about American and British “infidel” troops launching the war of liberation from the Saudi soil. The Afghan war followed by the Gulf war were the historical incubators which hatched the bin Laden school and ideology of terror. Saudi Arabia suffered the most material and moral damage from the rhetoric and actions of this group. Their violent discourse was espoused publicly by fundamentalists and became the sermon theme of many preachers in major mosques. It was during that point in time that Islamic tapes and pamphlets started to mushroom and the heavy hand of the “control squads” began to be felt by everybody everywhere. Liberals and intellectuals reacted by writing several letters and petitions to the king.  But this was to no avail because neither their numbers were sufficient nor their voices were loud enough to make much difference.

The government buckled under the pressure of the fundamentalists. Yet, we must not forget that it was then that late king Fahad (nearly 15 years ago) issued the Basic Law of Governance and reinstated the shura council with forty members appointed by the king himself. Now the number of members rose to 120 and there is a public demand to elect half of this number and appoint the other half, in line with municipal elections, which took place nearly two years ago.

The inauguration of King Abdullah coincided with the rebounding of the Saudi economy with appreciable surplus in national income due to soaring oil prices. This is reminiscent of the first economic boom during the reign of King Khalid (1975-1982). Resemblances between the reign of king Khalid and the reign of king Abdullah do not stop at economic prosperity. People draw parallels between the personalities of the two kings. Both are charitable and benevolent to their people with a strong sense of fairness and justice. Great things and monumental public projects were achieved in that first boom but, at the same time, the Saudi society suffered from disorientation and anomaly. Many people lost their fortunes then speculating in real estate. People are afraid that the same scenario would repeat itself in the present boom. Many people have already lost their life savings speculating this time in stocks.

Although the country is getting very rich, the wealth is concentrated in the hands of the privileged few. A clear class distinction is emerging in Saudi Arabia with a great divide between the haves and the have-nots, with no sizable middle class in between to stabilize society. The government has already initiated giant big projects, but it will take some time before the money for financing these projects is siphoned down to the public. Furthermore, there is real concern that contracts for these projects will go to few certain aristocratic families with political leverage and family connections to the ruling elite. More and more voices are being heard lately demanding that granting of contracts as well as high government posts should be awarded according to merits and qualifications and not family connections and social network. These same voices are demanding a more equitable division of national wealth and that the whole population of the country should be given a fair and even chance to share in this wealth instead of it being the exclusive privilege of a limited number of specific families whose members and children are assured secure future with high paying jobs and influential positions, regardless of what they contribute to the prosperity and development of the kingdom.

If it is allowed to think that there might be a silver lining somewhere around the cloud of terrorism, one such lining is the heightened international alert to this menace and the start to combat it ahead of its making much more damage than it actually have done already. On the Saudi side, it helped bring back home the Saudi wealth invested outside the kingdom. As a result of the very tight restrictions imposed on international money transfers and foreign investments and business transactions by Western countries, as part of their measures to fight terrorism and dry up the financial resources of terrorists, Saudis became more reluctant to invest outside the kingdom and they even brought back some of their money invested outside. However, this cash flow cannot effectively help the local economy without relaxing and updating the local regulations for investment on the one hand and improving the judiciary and court procedures related to international business and finance on the other. The interference of the religious ‘ulama in the working of banks and the stock market and companies, along with nepotism and favoritism in granting contracts are causing the business cycle in Saudi Arabia to move very sluggishly.

Within the last few decades, Saudi Arabia has been going through an unprecedented demographic explosion whereby people under the age of 25 years constitute the greater percentage of the population. The average size of a nuclear family is soaring somewhere between 8 to 12 individuals. High rate of unemployment coupled with inflation and high prices of commodities puts high financial strain on families with average income. Due to the low standard of public schools and public hospitals many families are obliged to send their children to expensive private schools and private clinics, with no insurance policies to pay for the bills. Aggressive advertising through the widely spreading media is turning the Saudi society into a society of avid conspicuous consumers. Low income and conspicuous consumption is a lethal combination. It leads the way to all sorts of crimes and social deviances, from bureaucratic corruption to drug addiction to delinquency of the youth.

Problems of adjusting to modern times are felt most acutely by young people, males and females. Public schools and colleges are becoming overcrowded, with many students finding it almost impossible to find places for themselves to continue and finish their higher education. Moreover, the low quality of the curriculum does not equip university graduates with the necessary skills and qualifications to succeed in the job market and start successful careers, which means they will not have the necessary income to get married, build a house and establish a family and stable life of their own. Unwed young boys and girls is becoming one of the most hotly debated issues in Saudi society today. With uncertain future ahead of them, the sense of anxiety and frustration by the young generation is further aggravated by the general political instability in the region as a whole.

Recent exposure to the outside world through modern education and modern media and other means of communication and travel had created a big generation gap between the old and the young. Young people cannot fail to notice the big difference between the outside world, with its political freedom and social openness and economic affluence, and the repressive social milieu they live in. Girls revel in watching the latest in fashion and make up on TV, yet they must cover up when they go out in the streets. Realizing the tremendous effect of the media, the clerical class fought very hard to prevent access to satellites and the internet in the homes but it was somewhat a loosing battle. I say “somewhat” because those very people who tried to block these modern means of communication eventually managed to use them very effectively in disseminating their own fundamentalist ideas.

Undoubtedly, the Saudi government is sincerely searching for workable solutions to the challenges facing its people. But it takes more than good will to find a way out. In addition to that, the government needs to establish a credible think tank composed of high caliber specialists from its own people, with outside help when needed. Members of this think tank should be drawn from divers academic disciplines, business sectors and social groups and should be given full scope to think freely and come up with all sorts of ideas and suggest all sorts of solutions to find out what is best for the country, based on true understanding of its social structure and cultural values and historical background, as well as clear vision of the future it should be heading for. The kingdom has the material wealth, the human resources and the energy to face and overcome any challenge. All that is needed is to bring all these factors together in a creative and productive way, with just a little help and know-how from the outside to jumpstart the process and give it a nudge.